Disclaimer
I’m not an expert on viruses, or epidemiology, or pretty much anything I’m about to say. I am, however, an expert on my opinion. I’m “dumbing down” a lot of stuff, and completely ignoring other things, for the sake of narrative.
The Virus
COVID-19 is a “novel variant” of coronavirus, which means it has recently made the jump from animals to humans.
A virus is essentially a bit of protein with genetic material inside (DNA or RNA), and when this protein is absorbed by a host cell, the genetic payload goes to work. It hijacks the cell, injects its own DNA/RNA and forces the cell to start making copies of itself. These genetic copies then infect nearby cells and start making more copies. The copies spread throughout the host, and eventually spread to other organisms.
Over time host organisms become more “aware of” a virus and are able to defend against it more easily. Even without an annual flu shot, your body has some level of inborn ability to fight the seasonal flu. Though the strain may be new each year (thanks to gene mutation within the virus), your body can look at it and say “Oh, this is Influenza B. I’ve seen this before. Gimme a couple days and I’ll bang out some antibodies. We’ll kick this thing to the curb in no time!” So, long-standing viruses come and go pretty quickly and without much fanfare.
But, as Dr. Malcom says in Jurassic Park, “Life finds a way.”
While host organisms are learning how to detect and defend against viruses, the viruses themselves are constantly adapting. Each time a virus moves from one host to another the copies are slightly different (mutated) from the original. Until recently this particular branch of the coronavirus family could only infect animals, but that all changed one day at a market in Wuhan, China, when COVID-19 “learned” how to jump from animals to humans.
There was no generational blueprint for this rapidly-mutating, out-of-nowhere virus. The human bodies that encountered it were completely unfamiliar with this new “animal” RNA and had no defense against it. This is what makes a “novel” virus so potent- never in the history of the human genome has this bit of animal RNA been injected into a human cell.
The astoundingly powerful human immune response kicks into into high gear when presented with this new threat, but COVID-19- like SARS (also a coronavirus) and H1N1 (both “novel” strains) before it, packs a major punch that can weaken an immune system before it has a chance to get its bearings. This results in about a 2%-3% death rate, which seems low until someone you love is one of the 3%. When compared to the .02% death rate of H1N1, that’s a pretty big number. If we use the H1N1 number of 12,000+ U.S. deaths, we can expect COVID-19 to kill 120,000 Americans this year.
That comparison isn’t a very good one, however, because COVID-19 has demonstrated a stronger ability to mutate than H1N1. This makes vaccines harder to create. Also, H1N1 symptoms were primarily fever, chills, cough, and body aches, while the symptoms for COVID-19 include respiratory distress. This puts asthmatics (about 10 percent of the population) and people already prone to pneumonia at higher risk.
Another issue that makes COVID-19 so difficult to combat is the “incubation period” (the time it takes for a patient to “feel sick” after exposure). H1N1, seasonal flu, SARS, and the common cold have an incubation period of about 2-7 days, with 3 days being about average. COVID-19 has an incubation period of 2-14 days, with an average not yet determined. So, you and I could be infected, but not sick for up to two weeks- all the while, infecting those around us.
More rapid mutations + “novel” status + respiratory symptoms + long incubation period = faster spread, and potentially greater harm.
The Response
Social Media
The first response by the various social media outlets (as with almost everything) was to mock it. “We all gonna die” memes flooded the Internet. Anti-vaxers were mocked. Pro-vaxers were mocked. Trump supporters were mocked. Trump haters were mocked. In other words- business as usual.
The second response was to start “reporting” on hoarding and shortages (Seriously people, how often do you defecate to need 200 rolls of toilet paper?) “Reporting” turned to “piling on.” “Piling on” turned to panic and suddenly, even the Great and Powerful Amazon started running out of hand sanitizer and paper goods.
If you think COVID-19 is vast government conspiracy, you’ve clearly never tried to get two government agencies to agree on anything- ever.
If you think Big Pharma created a new virus just to make more money… I have nothing to say that would even penetrate your orbit
Social Distancing
It will be impossible to know if we’ve “overdone it” with regards to COIVD-19, but it will be blatantly evident if we “underdo it.” Closing restaurants, canceling church services, calling off sports seasons, shuttering schools, etc. may be overkill- but we just can’t know for sure.
You may not realize this, but people spit on each other a lot! The air movement created by speaking can propel microscopic bits of saliva several feet away. If you stand a comfortable three feet away from your coworker, while having a spirited conversation about the latest episode of The Walking Dead, you walk away with their saliva on your face, hands (because who can talk without using their hands?) and clothes. This is perfectly normal and happens millions of times a day around the world. By keeping 6 feet apart (the general recommendation I’ve seen), you keep your self out of the Splash Zone and thus reduce the possibility of spreading a virus, or being infected.
I quite like the term “Social Distancing” over “quarantine.” Social Distancing doesn’t mean that we have to lock ourselves in our homes and have no contact with other humans- it simply means that we need to keep our distance.
Have a chat with your neighbor. Have a meeting with your HOA board. Enjoy a Bible study. Just do it from six feet away. You’re not quarantined- you’re distanced.
The Plan
I’m going to follow the guidance of experts and keep my distance as much as is reasonable. I’m not afraid to go out, but I’m not booking any flights anytime soon either- “moderation in all things” as the wise man once said. I’ll use Grubub, Door Dash and Uber Eats more than ever before, and be sure to tip generously when I do.
I’m fortunate enough to have a job I can do from anywhere, and telecommuting is already a big part of my regular work schedule. I won’t miss a beat. My wife, a school teacher, is out of work for an undetermined amount of time, but hers is a small percentage of the household income. We’ll be just fine. Others won’t be- servers at closed restaurants, janitors at empty schools, receptionist at closed offices; these people won’t be as unscathed as a professional nerd like myself. I’ll do what I can to help them, though at the moment I don’t know what that is.
The Prediction
In 6 months the conspiracy theorists will say “All this hype turned out to be about NOTHING!” and the CDC will reply, “You’re welcome.”